Why the Large Russian Army Surrounding Ukraine?

How Russia has surrounded Ukraine

It’s estimated the powerful Russia military has around 150,000 soldiers surrounding Ukraine and access to everything under the sun to help take out the smaller nation should push come to shove. The past couple of months Western/NATO powers have been alleging Russia will invade Ukraine full-on and replace its political leadership.

Maybe? Maybe not!

The US, Brits and every other Oligarchial Preservation Society proponent have been claiming it could happen any time. The world’s been on edge awaiting Russian president Vladimir Putin’s next move. Western media has wildly speculated Russia wants to restore its original Soviet bloc nations and all the best fits and forms of propaganda accordingly have been shoved into place. Indeed, we are nearly all conditioned, no matter what, to hate the bear!

Below, are two descriptions relative to how we’ve gotten to where we are today:

Putin, Instead of Invading, Surprised Everyone With a King’s Gambit

One must be a polished player to defend well against a well-played King’s Gambit.

With the table set and the whole world watching, what did Putin do? No, he didn’t send his intimidating well-publicized army into Ukraine. Instead, he came up with a move nobody — especially so-called experts — anticipated! I see his move as akin to The King’s Gambit in chess.

One could argue the world groaned in the deepest disappointment it didn’t get to see the hawked and promised full-on invasion as was advertised on media outlets everywhere. Everyone was so primed to see Putin lose standing in the world by invading.

So here’s what has happened and here’s what’s I think is happening.

Below, are maps of the former Ukrainian regions of Luhansk People’s Republic and Donetsk People’s Republic, which declared independence in 2014 after the rightwing coup of Ukraine’s democratically-elected government. It’s important to note not only did the US support the Ukrainian coup, it helped to manufacture its existence.

No Invasion For You!

Putin alternatively surprised the world by providing a full on-camera history of Ukraine and announcing the other parties caused The Minsk Agreement to fail. Effectively, he declared Minsk moot and announced Russia accepted and formally recognized the sovereignty of the independent breakaway states. He promised to expand Russia’s current level of peacekeeping assistance as the two new countries struggle to gain recognition of their independence with the rest of the world and protect its declared borders.

Herein, lies the rub.

Note from the map only about half of the Luhansk and Donetsk territories are militarily-occupied by the new breakaway republics. The remaining portions appear controlled by the Ukrainian military.

Rather than a full-on Russian invasion of all Ukraine, I suspect we’ll see Russian peacekeepers gradually help the two breakaway Republics take back territory now occupied by the Ukrainian military. I further suspect this will happen similar to how Afghanistan’s provinces fell to the Taliban: Rather than fierce land battles, in essence we’ll see territory returned from competing forces negotiating over a cup of tea.

This will happen everywhere except for the port city of Mariupul and its surrounding area in the lower Donetsk region.

Remember This Name: Mariupul

Mariupul is one of three headquarters of Ukraine’s infamous Azov neo-Nazis. In 2016, due to considerable bad publicity (similar to Blackwater in Iraq), the controversial private Azov military forces became incorporated into Ukraine’s National Guard. Today it stands as a full-scale military regiment. Azov also has a political headquarters in Ukraine’s capitol city Kiev, and a fallback position in Berdiansk located 25 miles south of Mariupul, across the Donetsk boundary.

Two Predictions:

First, I predict that in Mariupul, Ukraine’s Azov regiment — and other supportive far-right aligned military forces — will encounter fierce direct combat from the full weight of Russia’s military. I believe the Russian goal will be to completely wipe them out. Russia has a law on its books against Nazi and fascist-like behavior. This same law will unmercifully be applied within the two new republics Luhansk and Donetsk.

Goodbye Azov neo-Nazis — past US and British-training will have done you little good!

Ironically, I created the below meme on January 22nd. Today, it seems like this could actually happen:

Secondly, I predict once Ukrainian rightwing fascists militarily and politically become defeated and thereby possess less influence on Ukraine’s national political front (especially when it comes to the safety of Ukrainian politicians), Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskiy (yes, Vladimir was his original name) will be able to adopt a whole new geopolitical outlook.

If Zelenskiy can shed his governance of the extreme burden of the rightwing that’s always threatening his government, he could make better decisions, ones that balance the interests of both Russia and Ukraine’s Western influencers. For example, with Ukraine’’s rightwing fascists out of the picture, it could become easier for Zelenskiy to side with the interests of Russia.

In yet another brilliant chess move, Putin could always remind Zelenskiy the Russian army doesn’t exist outside Ukraine’s borders only for Russia’s sake. Rather, Putin could persuade Zelenskiy it exists so Zelenskiy can improve the quality of his own decision-making with respect to the well-being of Ukraine and that Putin would be more than happy, if necessary, to lend Zelenskiy his Russian army.

Not many have speculated the large Russian army could possibly exist to help protect the quality and safety of Zelenskiy’s future decision-making. Vladimir Putin could also remind Vladimir Zelenskiy that he need not have to go by the name Volodymyr Zelenskyy in order to satisfy political operatives of the USA. That he could go back to just being Vladimir again. As a side note, Kiev can go back to being Kiev again.

Importantly, Ukraine could be at peace with its neighbors with positive economic influences not only from Russia, but also from China’s Belt Road Initiative which is soon coming down the pike.

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Michael Weddle

Michael Weddle

Founder of Boston’s Climate Change Band; former NH State Representative; Created Internet’s 1st Anti-War Debate; Supporter of Bernie Sanders & Standing Rock!