Weddle Report Way Ahead of The News Networks!
— Biden win called just after midnight on Election Night at 12:38 am
All throughout election night I had been tracking the NYT for states, the LA Times for counties, ABC News for down-ballot races, USA Today for live camera streams of polling locations, listening to non-network/non-establishment political analysts on YouTube and following my own political instincts. My instincts aren’t bad given I finished #3 out of 220,000 participants in the 2016 CNN Political Prediction Market. The CNN prize for my good effort back then? Bragging rights!
Well, four years later, what with the 2020 Presidential election, it’s time again for me to reassert my bragging rights— lol!
Shortly before the midnight hour on election day, I had been observing the down ballot races move in a horrible direction and Trump seemingly ahead in every state that counted the most. I was totally bummed out and preparing to write a rather despairing article about poorly-performing Democrats.
It was then I picked up on the FoxNews projection Arizona would go for Biden. Instead of writing my negative article — which I still wrote, see Additional Reading below — I decided to first dig deeper. I knew mail-in votes would favor Biden; however, at that time, I didn’t know by how much. Solving the puzzle was not by examining what everything looked like, but by imagining how the numbers could change.
I began looking for clues by thoroughly searching the outstanding vote in key counties in crucial-to-win states. I also searched how well Biden’s vote performed compared to US senate races. Additionally, I began crunching electoral college numbers to determine the easiest pathway for a Biden victory.
I also detected various levels of angst and hints of non-confidence coming from Trump propagandists and I had long been keeping a keen eye on Trump’s multiple lawsuits to suppress the vote (see Trump to Steal Election in Additional Reading section below).
After all of the above, my gut told me Biden was going to win. At 12:38 am, I posted the following onto Facebook:
“Looks like Biden’s gonna win a squeaker. Not till tomorrow, however. He should at least have 274 electoral college votes.” I followed the post with a comment: “… It looks really good for Biden. AZ, NV, MN, WS, PA, ME will get Biden to 274. GA and MI? Still possible Biden could win both. If they split they cancel each other out. But Biden doesn’t need to win either state. If he doesn’t, the 274 number still prevails.”
Since I wrote this, I’ve been keeping an hourly update on the developments. These can be found on my Facebook timeline from November 3rd to present. All in all? I’ve been way-way ahead of the media on making the calls! My 2020 bragging rights are thus asserted — lol!
Below is the Facebook conversation where the fateful call was made that Biden would become president.
Facebook Transcript of Biden Victory Call (original post and comments):
Michael Weddle — November 4, 2020 (12:38 am)
Looks like Biden’s gonna win a squeaker. Not till tomorrow, however. He should at least have 274 electoral college votes.
Likes: Richie Monarch, Nancy Greene Naughton and 18 others; 22 Comments;1 Share
Zon Moy: Or lose
Michael Weddle: No. It looks really good for Biden. AZ, NV, MN, WS, PA, ME will get Biden to 274. GA and MI? Still possible Biden could win both. If they split they cancel each other out. But Biden doesn’t need to win either state. If he doesn’t, the 274 number still prevails.
Zon Moy: It’s way too early to tell as more votes come in
Michael Weddle: Looks like Biden might also get NE2, which would give him a 275 minimum.
Michael Weddle: Zon Moy — It’s too early to call if you don’t know what’s going on.
Zon Moy: And the media lies enough to make that true for everyone
Michael Weddle: Zon Moy — What makes you think I use main media?
Michael Weddle: Forget not I came in #3 out of 220,000 participants in CNN’s 2016 Political Prediction Market. And I did this without watching main media on television or in print.
Zon Moy: Michael Weddle — so you must have predicted a Hillary loss then.
Michael Weddle: Zon Moy — Indeed, I did. In 2015 even,, Plus I predicted well before November she’d lose Wisconsin.
I Consistently Predicted Clinton Would Lose Since 2015! Why & How:
— Originally written as a Facebook Note on December 15, 2016 (the introduction has been edited)
Alex White: Zon Moy — that’s funny because MSNBC says Biden has less votes than FOX says
Michael Weddle: Zon, are you ready now to state, “you were correct, sir!”
Jenn Crossman: Supreme Court gives each state up until 9 days to count ballots.. ALSO Pennsylvania wasn’t allowed to start counting absentee & mail in ballots until 7 pm tonight!!
Rebecca Wallace Keene: He’s lost
Crystal Linda Erickson Young: We won’t know for sure until Friday when MI completes its vote count. I have it on good authority that AP is the most reliable of the news sources, for what it’s worth. Some will doubt anyway if their candidate isn’t the winner.
Michael Weddle: Crystal Linda Erickson Young — It’s now in the bag for Biden. The court challenges, however, are another matter. Be assured our misery will continue — lol!
Crystal Linda Erickson Young: Michael Weddle — I have been and am deeply concerned about the next 2 months and what this angry bull might do in this china shop!! It beats being concerned re another 4 years of it, granted. He is such a vengeful, petty sob…..
Abigail Sable Roberts: From your mouth to G-d’s ear!
Michael Weddle: Let’s hope she recuses herself in the ultimate vote. G-D will need to get into her ear — lol!
Abigail Sable Roberts: Michael Weddle — Exactly
Michele Smith: YOU CAN BELIEVE, HE IS GOING TO FIGHT HAND & FIST!!!
Michael Weddle: Michele Smith — But the courts will view him like a parent minding a child who lost a toy.
Biden Victory Hurt by Poor Down-Ballot Performance
— Congressional-State Legislative Redistricting, after 2020 Census, in Peril Due to Failure of Democratic Down-Ballot…
Trump To Steal Election
— Trump Campaign Spawns Multiple Lawsuits to Limit the Vote Across the Nation