In response to US sanctions which severely crippled an already hurting Venezuelan economy due to the low price of oil markets, the Maduro government ceased using the petro dollar and switched first to the Euro and later to the Chinese petro yuan. Given the nation has more oil reserves than Saudi Arabia this is significant. Venezuela assumed its turn as president of OPEC in 2019. Venezuela also recently agreed to allow Russia to begin mining its gold, the second-largest reserves on the plant.
After numerous historical failures attempting to control the fate of Venezuela for its natural resources and with Trump needing to become a war president for his re-election, this time it’ll become an all-in military effort on the troubled nation. Facing significant future cross-Atlantic/cross Pacific trade challenges resulting from China and Russia aligned on the Belt Road Initiative, US geopolitical planners likely are thinking they need to consolidate economic interests within the southern hemisphere.
How It’ll Happen:
As with the Stan Region, Middle East and Africa, again the primary boots on the ground will become proxy militaries that will complement and act on behalf of already-trained US special forces teams:
a) US-international narco-specialists already stationed in surrounding nations
b) Colombia’s military and para-military squads
c) Brazil’s military and para-military squads
d) Naval ships from Argentina and Panama
e) Eric Prince-connected mercenary soldiers — perhaps a new proving ground for hardened and well-trained ISIS/Al Qaeda-recruited militants?
f) Agent provocateurs already situated inside of Venezuela and various extremist groups long-connected with Maduro’s opposition
g) NATO coalition forces of varied kind — spread and cover over the guilt!
It’ll start with Trump’s version of Shock and Awe: US air force, navy and marines decimating key Venezuelan infrastructure, military facilities, bases and formations, coupled with multiple ground forces attacking strategic points. Perhaps we’ll again see use of MOABs (Mother of All Bombs).
What Could Trigger This To Happen?
1) Juan Guaido and/or members of the defunct National Assembly getting arrested, scheduled for trial.
2) Guaido or a key agent(s) gets assassinated either by loyalists to Maduro; or, more likely, killed by undercover CIA agents intent on sparking the trigger.
3) Venezuela begins accepting large amounts of Russian and Chinese military troops and equipment.
4) An act of provocation (a border incident maybe?) involving nearby Colombia or Brazil causing one or both nations to make a declaration of war on Venezuela, with the US invited to support. (I actually think this is the most likely scenario)
5) Armed citizen Venezuelan militias, which are substantial, commit an act(s) of provocation either on US personnel or key US business allies located in Venezuela.
6) The US successfully bribes elements of the military thus creating an internal Venezuelan civil conflict, with the US being asked to come in to support those who took the bribe.
7) Russiagate bombshell(s). Perhaps indictment(s), on either Trump himself or against his Trump’s family members. Essentially, if Trump’s presidency becomes threatened.
What Could Prevent This?
- A united wall of Democrats and some Republicans opposing all of the above. But this is unlikely since they all seem on board for a war of economics that’ll benefit only the fat cats at the top of America’s Oligarch Enrichment Project. Only true progressives will object!
- Millions of Americans wearing yellow vests at the White House and Capital buildings and state capitals in all 50 states! Sadly, nobody seems willing to put their cellphones to good use!