Crystal Ball Analysis — 2020 Election
DEMS: It’s a Biden v. Sanders race — Warren, Harris or Buttigieg votes guarantee superdelegates select on 2nd ballot! GOP: Trump might not be nominee!
6/14/19 UPDATE — Biden:
6/11/19 UPDATE — Warren:
6/6/19 UPDATE — Gowdy-Weld instead of Trump-Pence?
5/10/19 UPDATE:
I mostly dissect the Democrats. With this update, however, I’m gonna speculate on the GOPwinger side, and also mention Libertarian and Green possibilities.
Republicans
The way I see it, Trump — while dancing to avoid a potential financial corruption indictment — has two options for getting re-elected:
First, he could become a full-blown war president since history shows no US president has ever lost re-election during a time of war.
Second, he could viciously and relentlessly attack Democrats over the failed and questionable Russiagate investigation, stay out of war and somewhat attempt to posture himself to the center. Trump is a renown chameleon shapeshifter and he could try to rebrand himself into a Jack Kennedy-type for his second term.
By perpetually blasting Democrats and throwing out right wing fish here and there, he could keep away primary opponents. Yes, Bill Weld has announced but he won’t affect Trump’s chances. If Trump mostly plays it down the middle and strays away from extremism this would make him less impeachable. Somewhere along the line, to keep the Rust Belt, he’d definitely have to throw a very big fish to labor.
Importantly, by keeping America out of war he could pick up less-than-secure Democrats and Independents who’d become angry with Democrats for screwing over Bernie Sanders a second time. I think Trump political operatives are banking that the DNC will again screw Sanders.
So barring an indictment, Trump will be there. Unless, of course, he makes a deal ‘for the good of the nation” and decides not to run in order to avoid an indictment against him or his family.
Libertarians and Greens
Last time around Gary Johnson proved an inept campaigner. It was so bad this time around Bill Weld, his running mate, is now running as a Republican. Traditionally, since the Koch Brother money began sifting into Libertarian coiffeurs, Libertarians have mostly sided with Republicans for nearly a half-century, mostly due to economic issues. Most anti-war Democrats have been put to pasture by the party and Democrats won’t touch the drug war, two issues very important to Libertarians.
The Democrats are already mistreating Bernie. Will he jump ship this time when he didn’t the last time? Probably not. However, of all of the 22 announced Democrats the candidate getting the least respect from the Democrats is Tulsi Gabbard who is renown for making stands on principle. This was especially proven when she resigned her DNC vice-chair position when she discovered the DNC was screwing over Sanders. Never mind not polling well, she’s often left out of the polls. She must be miffed!
Could she jump ship to head either the Libertarian or Green Party ticket? Ron Paul just recently made admirable comments about her. Could he be luring her to become a Libertarian? Also, The Greens do not have any candidate of notable distinction. Could Tulsi become a Green? Given the way Democrats have treated her, no one could blame her for taking such an action.
But the true wildcard in the 2020 presidential race no matter the political party? That’d be the greatest Whiz-Kid candidate of ‘em all, perhaps ever: Andrew Yang. Yang who bills himself as a Libertarian-Liberal has carved a new niche in modern-day politics. He’s also proven he’s got remarkably futuristic ideas which hold a very strong appeal to young voters.
Yang has been making a claim there is no left and no right, there is only forward. He unquestionably will become a growing force that not only require widespread recognition but his ideas will demand it. Already he’s drawn several thousand people to his speeches in LA, San Francisco, Seattle and Detroit. Presently, he’s in New Hampshire where he attended Phillips Exeter Academy. So he knows the roads of NH and could actually become the Jimmy Carter of 2020, a surprise out of nowhere.
Keep an eye on him — he’s full of solutions!
But Yang is also very progressive. Like Bernie in 2016, Yang brings to the table lots of very good ideas that seem to fit well with our evolving technological society. He’s perhaps the only candidate campaigning with an emphasis on math! Obama once gave him a national award for his entrepreneurship vision.
But the problem for Yang will be the same problem Bernie and Tulsi have encountered. The Democratic leadership these days gives the finger to candidates who come forward with progressive ideas. Like Hillary Clinton before him, Joe Biden is now the recipient of the DNC inside-beltway donor politics fake Barack Obama Rose Garden-like politics. No matter how good Yang is, he too — unless he runs away with the Democratic nomination — will likely become DNC-shunned! So also will Marianne Williamson.
Sanders, Gabbard, Yang and Marianne Williamson and Mike Gravel represent the outsider progressives in the Democratic race. So the question becomes: Could either of these candidates also have appeal to top either the Libertarian or Green Party tickets, as each of them represent the ideas and solutions to bring us nicely into tomorrow?
You may not know this yet, but eventually you might be telling yourself that a a presidential ticket comprised of any combination of these four candidates has tremendous appeal, especially when this compared to the same-old politics we’ve always seen.
Back to The Democrats
All indicators are the Democratic leadership, like in 2016, will prefer politics by pedigree. The leadership, which brings with it a wave of super delegates, is now backing Biden very much like Clinton. Could it become again, like it was in 2016, that the voting machines get to do the voting instead of the people?
https://medium.com/@m_weddle/democratic-party-leadership-fails-b58e31d31503
5/6/19 UPDATE — Sanders:
5/3/19 UPDATE:
Prediction: I predict a very strong GOPwinger counter-attack on Democrats over Russiagate will be forthcoming. This will especially concern the investigative process, which very possibly could politically damage Obama-Biden-Clinton-type insiders.
Here’s the irony. The more this happens, the stronger becomes Bernie Sanders who was and continues free of the entire Russiagate controversy. Bernie was even so kind as to forgive Clinton over her email snafu. Instead he wanted to concentrate on issues. That’s what Bernie does: He concentrates on issues important to people, not corporations!
Thus, a stringent GOP counter-attack against the party insiders could mean the clean Bernie will become the Democratic nominee in 2020. He’ll go on to defeat any Republican, especially Trump! Americans are thoroughly sickened of the saspibullsash and want sound governance which only Bernie Sanders will deliver.
Voter Registration Tracking:
Gallup’ Monthly Tracking Voter Registrations for April
Democrats = 26%
Independents = 44%
Republicans = 27%
Given the horror of Trump, Democrats should be way-way ahead. I think these poor numbers for Democrats reflect the DNC’s penchant to continue with insider hanky-panky, Biden as an example!
As Hillary Clinton discovered, Democrats can’t win by manipulating the Democratic primaries and going into the general election with Democratic votes only!
Do a Facebook search and go to virtually any of the Facebook Democratic Party-sponsored pages. You’ll discover a notable absence of any pro-Bernie Sanders information. The sites are pushing party Beltway Insider candidates only, Biden now the prominent example.
There is a reason why Independent voters now register with the Gallup tracking at 44%. The electorate still wants an outsider in the White House! The electorate wants people-centric over corporate-centric members in congress. Americans are sick of America’s oligarchy!
The DNC continues its errant ways by expanding closed primary states which won’t allow Independent voter participation. This represents party control, to control the process. It doesn’t represent at all the required and necessary expansion of the party. The DNC is also convincing caucus states — which Bernie won handily in 2016 — to convert to primaries.
The schedule of key primaries have been moved forward to Super Tuesday in order to help assure no candidate — especially with Bernie as the front runner — will have enough delegates to win on the 1st ballot. This will enable the super delegates to come in on the 2nd ballot and choose the nominee — a prescription for disaster!
It is vitally important that Democrats form a United Front behind Bernie Sanders so he can achieve a 1st ballot victory! This will guarantee the defeat of Trump & the down-ballot GOPwingers!
4/23/19 UPDATE:
4/19/19 UPDATE:
It appears like Joe Biden is going to jump into the race next week. He will be the oligarch’s last 2020 hope for the Democratic side, given that Harris, O’Rourke, Buttilieg and even Warren (still a party player), to some extent, have failed.
I’m betting Biden — a three-time losing presidential attemptee— won’t catch on, that too much baggage will weigh him down. If this proves true, I see the following happening:
I’m not yet willing to bet the ranch on this yet, but I’m sensing some break- through among traditional Democratic party strategists. It appears release of the Mueller Report guarantees only more agony for Democrats who’ve been hardcore on Russiagate.
The Mueller Report demonstrates the potential for a riff such that Trump potentially may have gained very strong counter-attacking capability against perceived elite Democrats (the bacon-wrapped scallop Democrats, not the working class fried clam Democrats). They might also be starting to realize that nobody but Sanders will win the crucial Rust Belt. But more than anything, Bernie is a clean machine who managed to stay out of the 2016 goggle-de-gook, that Bernie doesn’t run in the mud … he runs in the sunshine, with a proven record and advocating what voters really want.
Buttilieg? Yet another non-lasting media phenom who attracts white donor money, is spawned from the intelligence community (nobody like this these days), is stained by working at oligarch consultancy McKinsey and he has a record of destroying minority-owned neighborhoods. Yup, Mayor Pete’s wings will see a very short flight.
Biden? Biden is nothing but a memory of more Clinton and Trump. Beyond the reaches Me-Too controversy, Joe’s got some Ukrainian baggage that’ll come back to bite him. Voters won’t like the Joe or Hillary proposition … and, yes, they are one and the same when comes to the eyes of a hungry electorate really wanting an outsider that’ll govern for working people (hello Rust Belt!).
Kamala, who they thought would take California (now voting on Super Tuesday) votes from Bernie, and Beto, who they thought would take youth votes from Bernie? Their respective stars have already diminished. They won’t grab as many of Bernie’s votes as originally thought. Warren? A party loyalist also trying to nurture the next young Kennedy, Warren is only in the race — with no chance of winning — to try and home spin some of Bernie’s “Home Field Advantage” in New Hampshire and severely diminish his take of Massachusetts votes on Super Tuesday. Her national appointment will mean the young Kennedy will get her senate seat. This is traditionally how Democrats groom and pedigree their candidates.
Best thing the Democratic strategists can do is give up on their plan to use 2nd ballot super delegates to deny the nomination to Bernie who’ll finish with the most pledged delegates but perhaps maybe not enough to get over the top on the 1st ballot, this due to the crowded field.
This much we know. Bernie will come into the convention with the most votes. To deny him the nomination will, this time, destroy the party — it was only fractured in 2016! It would also ruin the Democratic chances of having a strong hand with designating congressional redistricting which will happen based on the 2020 census. The one and most crucial election needing to be won, aside from the presidency, is congress after the 10-year census cycle!
To guarantee beating Trump and having strong enough coat-tails to take Congress in 2020 the strategists are gonna have to give up on the dreaded scheme that nobody wants.
They should encourage most of the anti-Bernie straw candidates to withdraw from the race and they should make the Democratic closed primaries open primaries in order to draw in the most possible Independent voters (Bernie drew 7 of 10 Independents in 2016) into the party.
Finally, again a reminder of where America has been and where it needs to go:
4/12/19 UPDATE:
A few things for this update. Looks like any Democrat capable of taking even a few votes away from progressive Bernie Sanders is A-OK with the Clinton-controlled DNC war room where DNC strategy is spawned.
The plan is to create two or three major candidates capable of going the distance against Sanders thus forcing a deadlock on the first ballot and denying him the nomination outright. The super delegates then will come in and make the pick. I assure you whoever that second ballot winner will be assuredly will be oligarch-friendly!
Joe Biden
Biden has major deficiencies going against Trump. The Clinton-David Brock strategists will attempt to shape Biden’s Me-Too deficiencies with those of Trump and Bill Clinton thus turning Me-Too into So What! That may or may not work. Biden is also a proven loser in races for national office, three times losing his bid for the presidency and once placing 5th in the Iowa Caucus. In simple bubba terms, Biden just don’t got no mo-mo!
But Biden has a larger substantially more haunting problem. Voters who’ve long been sickened by a long line of Bushes and Clintons and sickened that Trump claimed he was an outsider but has governed only for billionaires. They are sick of that crap! Hillary Clinton was a Wall Street senator but Biden’s been a senator from the state where the Wall Street corporations incorporate due to tax and regulatory reasons. In simple bubba terms, voters ain’t gonna want that!
And then there’s this problem for Biden, a problem proving Biden is just like the rest of ‘em:
The hopes for Beto O’Rourke are seeming fading, however, they are trying to keep him alive as a potential VP candidate (hello Texas!) should a woman become the nominee. The insider operatives are doing their best to keep Kamala Harris viable for California on Super Tuesday and throughout The South, this to help prevent Bernie from getting “I was once chained to a black women during the Civil Rights Movement” votes from black voters who are a strong demographic base in the South. Meanwhile, Liz Warren from Massachusetts will help steal Bernie’s “Home Field Advantage” in New Hampshire.
It appears like they’re manufacturing Indianapolis Mayor Pete Buttigieg as a back-up to Biden in case Biden falters and because Beto didn’t catch on. But this won’t work because voters will eventually discover Buttigieg is not as home grown as he’s pretends. He’s actually a strict capitalist which is the last thing Democrats really need to attract Independent voters for winning the presidency.
Take note: It is impossible shed the image of being an “elite” by being a “capitalist!” Voters are all on the Internet now, and 85% now have smartphones!
The only way to defeat Trump and win both the House and Senate is to become the complete antidote to Trump and the GOPwingers. Democrats — and especially the people — do not win when Democrats act or pretend to be like Republicans! The below chart shows the consequence to this:
Be Skeptical of Early Primary Polling
I’d be skeptical of any presidential poll using a 50/50 sampling of cellphones vs. landline for it interviews, or any poll reliant upon a majority of landlines
It’s well known that Bernie Sanders leads all candidates among the younger voters. By conducting 50% cell phone and 50% landline polls the results likely get skewed towards the more centrist candidates as Bernie support fades among the elder voters..
“Wireless-only rate for those aged 18 to 24 is 64.2 percent; for those 35 to 44 it was 63.9 percent; for those 45 to 64 it was 47.1 percent; and for those 65 and older it was 23.9 percent — January 2018.”
3/1/19 UPDATE:
Washington state Gov. Jay Inslee, an HRC superdelegate supporter, has joined the race to solely focus on climate change issues. This will effectively dilute Bernie Sanders votes from environmentalists in Iowa and NH.
Liz Warren is performing a similar straw candidacy role for the New Hampshire primary. Warren has no reason to be in this race, other than to siphon off Bernie Sanders voters in New Hampshire. By using a competing “Home Field Advantage” strategy, Warren, from Massachusetts, will hobnob with NH’s centrist national female politicians in order to take votes away from Bernie.
Interesting sidebar: In the 2016 race, Sanders showed the amazing courtesy of allowing Warren to make her decision to run before he announced his candidacy. Had she decided to run, he would not have announced. Warren, who has now risen into the comfortable role of a political insider, shows no desire to return the political courtesy to Bernie.
Hot Tip: Lots of free bacon-wrapped scallops will be dished out courtesy of the donors and NH party insiders who support the Warren campaign! Reminder: Just ’cause you take her scallops does not mean you have to vote for her — lol!
As noted below, Kamala Harris will play the important role of siphoning off minority voters who otherwise would support Sanders due to his strong stances on economics and imbalances within America’s criminal justice system. The Harris Effect will initially take place in South Carolina, scheduled as the fourth state to vote. Her candidacy will also play an enormous role on Super Tuesday which not only includes several southern states but also California which has moved its primary forward. Also, Warren will try to stick around in order to prevent Sanders from winning Massachusetts, which also votes on Super Tuesday.
Also noteworthy, is Clinton’s campaign chairman, Robby Mook, has been appointed to head the House Majority PAC. This influential position will enable Mook to use a bully pulpit, and re-election funding, to prevent Democratic congressmen and women from endorsing Sanders. Clinton political operatives also control the DNC chair and committee as well as the DNC war room.
All things considers, greater are now the chances for DC political operatives to select their own puppet, either by a late midstream ‘shining white knight’ entrant into the race, or by guaranteeing a brokered convention whereby the super delegates can select the nominee on the 2nd ballot. The object of the Beltway insiders is to prevent Bernie from running away with the nomination start to finish.
Stay tuned!
2/15/19 UPDATE:
Sanders will soon announce. Gabbard will eventually drop out and endorse him after NH. Meanwhile, it’s important to have her voice out there. I don’t like any of the others. Of the others, Warren will also drop out after NH but only after she’s diluted the Sanders vote in the NH primary (double Home Field Advantage).
My hope is after New Hampshire, Sanders and Gabbard will announce they are the team for president and vice president. Bernie will need an edge with what will be thrown against him. Breaking tradition and announcing Gabbard as his VP pick early in the race will distinct the importance and necessity of a pro-peace and labor ticket. Bernie can hammer away at domestic policy and Tulsi can emphasize foreign policy.
Longshot possibility: Once on the campaign trail Tulsi could get fired up and become a prolific speaker, something I see now as her weak point. If she spends a good amount of time reviewing, analyzing and adopting Jesse Jackson/Bernie Sanders speeches and starts delivering some barn-burners, she could become an unstoppable force. If this happens, then Bernie could become the VP choice. Remember, America is still wanting the first female president and an outsider who will break from traditional politics. Tulsi has both attributes.
Most of the others will drop after NH, leaving Harris who is in it for two reasons: a) the VP slot; and, b) to dilute Sanders southern minority support, something he didn’t have last time around because the media blackout prevented him from becoming well-known during the early southern primaries, all of which were all front-loaded on Clinton’s behalf in the DNC scheduling process. Possibility Eric Holder might come in to also grab some southern votes away from Sanders.
Harris will get the lionshare of early super delegate endorsements, enough to make it seem like she has mo-mo againsts Sanders. But most of the supers will hold back in wait for Biden. Biden will be coy, however, likely declining to run in the early going but then come into the race in time for Super Tuesday where California will now vote early.
When and if Biden announces, super delegates will get behind him. He’ll see himself as the great white knight coming in to save the party. This will create a three-way split for the long haul — Sanders, Harris and Biden. They’ll trudge into a contested convention with a three-way split of delegates, thus deadlocking the convention. Then the super delegates, on the second ballot, will select the nominee.<<<
Original Post
Democrats Have Learned Nothing! Will We See A Karl Rove-Like/Media-Induced Political Strategy Prevail Among Democrats in 2020? You Bet!
The political operatives, members of the lobbyist/consultant class functioning on behalf of America’s Oligarch Enrichment Project will likely show the following plan:
First, super-delegates will move as a herd in action and with early public statements and endorsements. The DNC will encourage as many caucus states as possible to become primary states and will try to keep lots of closed primaries whereby Independent voters can not participate.
Second, using deep-deep media connections, downgrade in every way conceivable the Bernie Sanders and Tulsi Gabbard candidacies. Their respective candidacies will be tagged with distorted political operative talking points, challenges to their loyalty, challenges to their ballot status and getting tagged as political products of the Russians.
Third, there will become a loud ruckus within the party to deny Sanders a place on the Democratic ballot unless he publicly forsakes his Independent status. This decision rests solely within the power of DNC chairman, Tom Perez. Fabricated pressure will mount on this.
Fourth, muddy the waters by flooding the Democratic primary with seemingly younger than Sanders faix-progressives politicians like Warren, Harris, Booker, Gillibran, Castro, et. al. In Beto O’Rourke’s case they’ve been rebranding him from his moderate voting record into that of a young Kennedyesque image of great appeal. The leadership of the party is hellbent and determined to dilute as many Sanders votes as possible.
Fifth, hope early voting produces no clear favorite. The door then opens for the centrist savior Democrat — Biden or perhaps Clinton again (phew!) — to enter the race and steal it with full media thunder. Next, one of the younger faux progressive aspirants will get rewarded with either the VP nod or a high cabinet appointment, i.e., a stepping stone to keep their future presidential hopes alive.
Sixth, keep the waters so muddied throughout the entire primary-caucus process that the super delegates will get to pick the nominee on a second convention ballot. Oh, what a wonderful big tent for the you-know-who’ll- they’ll-pick! America’s oligarchs will, once again, will aim to get their puppet very well politically strung.
Of course, everybody playing this faux presidential primary game will ultimately get rewarded by becoming a better millionaire, or a position higher in power. The incentives for the Bernie vote-diluting candidates is so strong it’s only waiting for sufficient media manipulation, i.e., the slant.
The game now is well understood. Everybody knows how the Clintons went from being middle-upper class to garnishing a wealth factor of over 200 million dollars, just from their careers in public service. Right now, the insincere Democratic candidates are in it for money and power only!
Let’s hope Bernie and Tulsi create a united front for true progressives and the centrist faux-progressives get vanquished.
The 2020 GOPwinger Primary
The GOP after decades of playing with evil finally cinched their deal with the devil by creating Donald Trump. If Trump survives his first term and is clean enough to run for a second, there will be no significant primary challenge to him and he will continue to rule GOPwingerism and Mike Pence will continue to play the Charlie Daniels ‘Deal With The Devil’ second fiddle.
I don’t think RussiaGate holds any substance to take Trump down. I’ve been suspect about this ever since the Russian narrative was dreamed up in the Clinton Campaign back room. But Trump’s modside connections, his numerous dirty business deals (will his IRS statements ever come through?) and soiled and dirty linen could cause him to lose the respect of the nation, perhaps his presidency. So we might not see Trump in 2020.
Should this happen, Pence will make the standard bearer claim. Kasich, Walker, Cruz and many of the previous GOPwinger horses will likely again enter the fray. Maybe even another Bush will jump in. Nonetheless, neither will hold the charisma and influence needed to become president. But there is one potential candidate who could jump in and take the whole kit and kaboodle: former South Carolina GOP congressman, Trey Gowdy.
Gowdy is a threat. Repeat: Gowdy is a threat! Gowdy automatically will be able to claim outsider status because he boastfully condemned politics as it is played, quit Congress and made his decision well before the so-called “Blue Wave” was heydayed. Gowdy also happens to be an extraordinary orator. The guy can think on his feet, is able to deliver a great speech (even if you don’t believe what he’s saying) and he’d be the best of all possible GOPwinger debaters. Perhaps the only master debater among the whole sorry lot of ‘em!
Gowdy first came into the public eye when he chaired the Benghazi hearings. From those hearings Hillary Clinton held her own and did well getting past them, even making it seem like Gowdy was barking up the wrong tree.
Turns out he was. But not for the reasons Clinton was alleging. Gowdy barked up the wrong tree because it was later discovered Benghazi was in fact a CIA outpost, not a US embassy consulate. Prize-winning investigative journalist Seymour Hersh later exposed how the outpost served as a staging area for the ratline of Gaddafi’s Libyan weaponry smuggled out of Libya through Turkey into Syria, ultimately arming Al Qaeda/ISIS. In presidential politics, Gowdy could present a coup-fourré.
Anyway, with Trump out, look for Gowdy in as he’d become the GOPwingers best card for 2020. Odds are, however, Trump will still be in as it’s very hard to get a president out of office. Either way America’s oligarchs, as always, will have their puppet from the GOPwinger side. Trump, in fact, has made them lots of money!
Conclusion
Democrats need to stop fooling themselves and present their best candidate. That candidate is Bernie Sanders, who also has strong appeal among Independent voters who comprise the larger body of the electorate. Despite all odds against him in 2016 he erased Clinton’s 60% point lead and managed to pull off a highly respectable campaign while also condemning big money in politics. He has already proven he’s willing to take on the system, an attribute voters not only appreciate but genuinely want.
As noted from the chart above, political control in America has been right wing politics ever since JFK was shot. The last good Democrat was George Mcgovern. But party leaders, under the stewardship of the Clintons, abandoned the workers and moved the party more in line with Wall Street. Obama, in effect, with his CitiGroup-appointed presidential cabinet, had become a caretaker president in wait for the next line of Bush-Clinton.
Trump, if he’s managed to accomplish anything positive, at least put a stop to Bush-Clinton monarchical line.. But Trump is not a true outsider like Sanders. Trump feeds the oligarchy; Sanders does not! In American politics money traditionally pulls the puppet strings. This is precisely why another campaign of Bernie Sanders remains needed breaths of fresh air!
Be wise and build a united front now behind the only honest, wise and genuine political candidate: Bernie Sanders!
